MLB Home Run Derby Predictions, Best Bets and Odds for Today

Home Run Derby Bets in Summary

• Munetaka Murakami to Win the Home Run Derby (+500)
• Bryce Harper to Win the Home Run Derby (+800)

The MLB’s Home Run Derby takes place tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

The Derby is a fun and unique event for fans — both to watch and to bet on.

Using FanDuel Sportsbook’s Home Run Derby odds, what are the best bets for tonight? Let’s dig in.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Home Run Derby Odds

Home Run Derby Predictions, Best Bets

Bryce Harper to Win the Home Run Derby (+800)

Rarely does a Derby participant who is on the host team fly under the radar in the betting market, but I think that’s happening a little with Bryce Harper.

The Philadelphia Phillies will be well represented tonight as both Harper and Kyle Schwarber are in the field. Schwarber is the main reason why Harper is going a little overlooked. Schwarber is one of the best home-run hitters in recent history and is the current betting favorite for the HR Derby (+310), much shorter odds than Harper (+800).

But we shouldn’t sleep on Harper, who is having a stellar 2026 campaign, posting a 42.1% hard-hit rate and .394 expected wOBA with 20 long-balls. He certainly has the power and profile to be a contender tonight, and the home crowd can give him a boost.

The stadium can help, too. Citizens Bank Park is better for lefties (8th in HR factor this year) than it is righties (13th).

Lastly, Harper has some history in this competition, winning it in 2018 by beating — as fate would have it — Schwarber in the finals, so he knows what it takes to succeed in this unique event.

Munetaka Murakami to Win the Home Run Derby (+500)

Munetaka Murakami checks a lot of boxes as a potential Derby winner.

The dude just mashes. In his rookie campaign, Murakami has popped 20 dingers in only 259 plate appearances while producing a 44.0% hard-hit rate and 45.6% fly-ball rate. He’s wasted no time becoming one of the game’s elite power bats, and he has very little issue getting the ball in the air.

He also fits Citizens Bank Park well as he swings from the left side and has plenty of pull-side power, posting a 44.8% pull rate this season, something I think could really matter today given the dimensions in Philly.

There are two variables at play. One, Murakami has obviously never done the Derby before. Two, he’s just coming back from injury. But there’s a chance his time on the shelf could work in his favor as he’s likely a little fresher than the rest of the field.

All in all, I’m intrigued by these +500 odds on Murakami to take the crown.

MLB Betting FAQ

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which bets stand out to you for tonight's Derby? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's Home Run Derby betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.