Mets vs. Phillies Prediction Today: 2 MLB Best Bets and Player Props (July 16)

Mets-Phillies Picks at a Glance

• Francisco Lindor to Record 2+ Hits/Runs/RBI (-125)
• Bryce Harper to Record an RBI (+130)

Even within a single MLB game, you've got countless betting markets to choose from.

Which bets stand out today as the Mets take on the Phillies?

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

MLB Predictions Today: Mets vs Phillies Best Bets, Picks

Francisco Lindor to Record 2+ H/R/RBI (-125)

Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola is having a rough time against lefties, and that pushes me toward this Francisco Lindor prop.

Versus lefty bats, Nola is allowing a 45.7% fly-ball rate, 1.95 homers per nine and a .366 wOBA.

Lindor’s .298 wOBA looks ugly, but a lot of it is due to bad luck as he owns a .342 expected wOBA. A lowly .231 BABIP is holding him back, and he’s got a nice batted-ball profile against RHPs (41.2% hard-hit rate and 43.5% fly-ball rate).

Likely to hit fourth, Lindor is in a good spot for RBI chances, and I find these -125 odds appealing for him to rack up at least two hits/runs/RBI.

Bryce Harper to Record an RBI (+130)

New York Mets RHP Christian Scott makes for a good matchup for Bryce Harper.

Scott has allowed 1.53 jacks per nine to left-handed hitters this season along with a 41.9% fly-ball rate.

That aligns with Harper’s strengths as Harper has mauled righties in 2026 to the tune of a .421 wOBA and 45.3% hard-hit rate. He’s also been more productive at home (.392 wOBA) than on the road (.352).

Harper will likely be third in the lineup, right behind Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber. Add in that Philly is listed at -122 odds to go over 4.5 runs, and this shapes up as a nice matchup for Harper to drive in a run.

MLB Betting FAQ

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.