AU - Mackay - Race 5

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

8.9f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

24.5K

VIEW

Verdict

Terrific race with plenty of chances. ODEGAARD (4) is going better than form suggests. Has flown home to finish close-up fourths in far richer races the last two. Jumps quickly in trip but has done so before and has a win and a placing from two tries at this trip. Will be settling closer but finishing on hard. EL PENSADOR (9) ran well albeit safely held in town two back then dropped back to 7f at Townsville and got the money. Back up in trip but plummets in the weights and can measure up again. GOING NUCLEAR (2) is flying lately with back-to-back wins over the mile. Should prove hard to beat. JOURNALISM (3) had been racing consistently with three minor placings on end before finishing fourth most recently over 1m at Rockhampton. Will find this easier and should figure in the finish. THE PENSKE FILE (6) has claims on best.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Racing well recently. At the latest run 4th of 14 at Rockhampton Qlty on July 9 over 6 ½f, long-neck behind Demon Award carrying 119lbs at $19. The race before that 4th of 16 at Eagle Farm Botb Final on June 27 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Roll Up with 121lbs at $3.20. Fourth last two in far richer races and looks hard to hold out. 1st Pick 4 Odegaard Jockey: Sean Cormack Trainer: Joshua Manzelmann J: Sean Cormack T: Joshua Manzelmann	145	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run 4th of 14 at Rockhampton Qlty on July 9 over 6 ½f, long-neck behind Demon Award carrying 119lbs at $19. The race before that 4th of 16 at Eagle Farm Botb Final on June 27 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Roll Up with 121lbs at $3.20. Fourth last two in far richer races and looks hard to hold out.
9	Last start favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2 len at Townsville Bm65 June 28 over 7f defeating Got Gumption carrying 134lbs at $2.60. The run before that didn't do much in the run home, 5th of 11 at Doomben Bm70 on May 27 over 1m, slow going 7 len behind Sosino carrying 129lbs at $10. Back up in trip and plummets in the weights. 2nd Pick 9 El Pensador Jockey: Lacey Morrison Trainer: Trevor & Peter Rowe J: Lacey Morrison T: Trevor & Peter Rowe	122	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Last start favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2 len at Townsville Bm65 June 28 over 7f defeating Got Gumption carrying 134lbs at $2.60. The run before that didn't do much in the run home, 5th of 11 at Doomben Bm70 on May 27 over 1m, slow going 7 len behind Sosino carrying 129lbs at $10. Back up in trip and plummets in the weights.
2	Chasing a hat-trick. Last start won by 0.5 len at Townsville Hcp June 28 over 1m defeating Free Carry carrying 120lbs at $6. The start before that won by 1.5 len at Townsville Hcp June 16 over 1m defeating Journalism with 118lbs at $7. Going well and should prove hard to beat. 3rd Pick 2 Going Nuclear Jockey: Olivia Kendal Trainer: Matthew Mcguire J: Olivia Kendal T: Matthew Mcguire	113	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Last start won by 0.5 len at Townsville Hcp June 28 over 1m defeating Free Carry carrying 120lbs at $6. The start before that won by 1.5 len at Townsville Hcp June 16 over 1m defeating Journalism with 118lbs at $7. Going well and should prove hard to beat.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.